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Rishi Sunak is considering further tax cuts as well as the date of the next UK general election, according to sources familiar with his thinking. A possible election date in May or later in 2024 is being weighed as his aides debate whether to capitalize on a vote in the spring or wait until 2024.

The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement this week has led to speculation that an earlier election is being considered. With a fast-tracked payroll tax cut set to take effect in January instead of April, voters may feel the benefits before a potential spring election. The failure of Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, to rule out an earlier spring Budget has further fueled speculation.

Previously, Sunak’s aides had indicated a November 2024 election, but the current thought is that a January 2025 deadline provides some flexibility in that regard. However, the conventional wisdom within the Conservative Party suggests that a later election would give more time to extend Sunak’s tenure in office and potentially secure his position as the Prime Minister.

Amidst this, it is noted that an early election could alter the current opposition’s victory margin. The Tory strategy is hinged on enabling a close gap to possibly prevent Labour from securing a parliamentary majority in a May election. Sunak may aim to carry on as the Tory leader and capitalize on any difficulties Labour may face in forming a coalition.

An early election might depend on the economic situation in Britain improving by February, with falling inflation and better wage growth that can positively influence public sentiment. Conversely, delaying the election might expose Sunak to accusations of evading voters, as well as the potential for other negative factors to affect the Tory campaign.

As of now, the Labour leader Keir Starmer is anticipated to win by a landslide, based on the latest YouGov survey. However, many Tories are skeptical about an early election without a significant shift in public opinion, as Labour has consistently held a lead.

In terms of policy, Sunak is aiming to announce more tax cuts at the spring budget if inflation falls below 3%. There is also consideration to revive proposals to cut inheritance tax, though some Tory lawmakers are doubtful about the impact of focusing on tax cuts instead of public services.

Additionally, Sunak faces pressure to address legal migration, with calls from within the party to include a “notwithstanding” clause in new legislation dis-applying the Human Rights Act. This could test Britain’s commitment to international conventions. Furthermore, Tory aides are preparing to argue that Sunak needs a mandate from voters to deliver on migration.

In conclusion, the potential of an early election and its implications for the Conservative Party are becoming the focus of strategic planning within the government. With wider economic and political considerations at play, the decision for the election date and potential policy shifts will likely shape the UK’s political landscape in the near future.